Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton Has 68% Chance To Win Texas Senate Primary

Prediction market Polymarket is currently giving Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton a strong lead in the race for the 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary. Traders on the platform are assigning Paxton a 68% chance of winning the nomination, compared with 27% for incumbent Senator John Cornyn and 6% for Representative Wesley Hunt. The odds reflect how much money users are willing to stake on each potential outcome, offering a real-time snapshot of market expectations rather than traditional polling data.

While not an official forecast, prediction markets often react quickly to political momentum, media coverage, fundraising activity, and voter sentiment. Paxton’s high percentage suggests that market participants currently believe he has the strongest path to securing the Republican nomination. Cornyn, a long-time Senate fixture, remains a significant contender, but traders appear less confident in his ability to fend off a primary challenge. Hunt’s low odds indicate he is seen as a long-shot candidate unless major shifts occur.

The early odds hint at a potentially high-profile and competitive Republican primary in Texas. Paxton’s popularity among conservative grassroots voters may be driving his perceived advantage, while Cornyn’s incumbency provides institutional strength but may face growing intra-party pressure. As the election cycle unfolds, these numbers are expected to fluctuate with endorsements, campaign developments, and external events — reminding observers that prediction market probabilities measure current sentiment, not certainty.